Is The Market Too Bearish On Natural Gas?

Natural gas prices have gone through a relentless beatdown this winter. Mother nature has not provided any support until now and with the weather models trending slightly more bullish going forward, is the market too bearish on natural gas?

Since June of last year, the Freeport LNG outage increased storage by at least ~400 Bcf, but with LNG demand back to normal now, warm weather has kept storage elevated.

And looking at our latest storage estimate, we have 1.71 Tcf as our exit.

For the week ending 2/3, we have materially increased our draw estimate to -190 Bcf. This coupled with a strong draw expected in next week's report should bring natural gas storage below 2 Tcf by early March.

So with LNG back and end of storage revised lower, should natural gas rally from now?